Actively Advance Population Policy — Building a 10-Million-Person Greater Hong Kong Metropolis

On December 4, Chief Executive John Lee, in an interview with Radio Television Hong Kong, stressed that Hong Kong must "compete for talent", citing "many research reports" which indicated that to remain competitive, Hong Kong should have a population of 10 million, otherwise the city’s talent pool would be limited. In recent years, many opinion leaders and scholars — for example former Financial Secretary Antony Leung, Professor Wong Yue-chim, and Professor Frank Lui — have unanimously emphasised the importance of urban competitiveness and the "agglomeration effect" (the exchange and mutual stimulation of different talents producing synergies and "spillover benefits"), and have advocated building "a Hong Kong with a population of around 10 million".

1. Population Ageing Is Severe — Hong Kong Needs Large-Scale Inflows of Young and Prime-Age Talent

A city’s competitiveness is closely tied to the scale of its economy and population: Tokyo, the Greater New York metropolitan area, and the Greater London metropolitan area all have populations far exceeding 10 million. The Mainland’s four tier-one cities — Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen — each have populations of around 20 million, and their GDP (Gross Domestic Product) also exceeds Hong Kong’s. Within the Greater Bay Area, if Hong Kong wishes to maintain its position as one of three pillars alongside Shenzhen and Guangzhou, it must actively seek change and look for a fast track to development.

A city is not necessarily better the larger it grows: mega-cities are prone to the urban pathologies of excessive congestion, and building a 10-million-person metropolis requires detailed and comprehensive scrutiny. However, because Hong Kong’s population ageing problem is severe, it will become a stumbling block to development. Whether or not Hong Kong should or can build a 10-million-person metropolis, it must absorb large numbers of young and prime-age talent, and it must also formulate a comprehensive population policy.

According to the latest population projection released by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department last year (《Hong Kong Population Projections 2022-2046》; hereafter referred to in this article as the "new population projection"), over the 22 years from mid-2024 to mid-2046 (hereinafter referred to as "this 22-year period"), deaths in Hong Kong will exceed births, resulting in a natural decrease of as many as 720,000. However, because Hong Kong is projected to absorb large numbers of talent, the population will still grow substantially, from 7.53 million to 8.19 million. But compared with the target of 10 million, this is still 1.81 million short. To reach a population in the tens of millions, Hong Kong will need to absorb far more immigrants than the "new population projection" anticipates.

In fact, the assumed immigration intake in the "new population projection" is already very ambitious. That projection estimates that over this 22-year period, after deducting One-Way Permit immigrants, the average annual net inflow will reach 28,000 — significantly higher than Hong Kong’s previous absorption levels. In the 22 years from the handover to 2019, after deducting One-Way Permit immigrants, Hong Kong was virtually every year a place of net outflow, with annual average net emigration of 20,000 to 30,000; only in three of those years was there a small net inflow of a few thousand people, and there was never any year with a net inflow in the tens of thousands.

However, even under the high-level immigration intake of the "new population projection", the population ageing problem will remain very severe: over this 22-year period, the population aged 65 and above is projected to rise from 22.8% of the total to 36%; the median age will rise from 47.9 to 55.5 (reaching late middle age); the labour force participation rate will fall from 57.1% to 51.6%, and the labour force will decline as a result. These trends will have serious negative impacts on economic development, innovation, and medical and elderly services. If Hong Kong is to reverse these negative trends, it will need to absorb many more young and prime-age talent than the "new population projection" anticipates.

2. How Many Immigrants Must Be Absorbed to Build a 10-Million-Person Metropolis?

Building a 10-million-person metropolis is an extremely complex systemic project; in addition to an integrated population policy, it also requires co-ordination of land, infrastructure, transport, housing, economic, industrial, education, medical, and social-facility planning. Although the Chief Executive has indicated that Hong Kong should have a population of 10 million, because Hong Kong has no population policy, no government document specifies how many immigrants Hong Kong must absorb each year in order to build a 10-million-person metropolis.

The Census and Statistics Department’s population projection is a projection, not a policy, but it provides valuable data that allows the authors of this article to answer this question roughly. According to the "new population projection", over this 22-year period Hong Kong’s natural population decrease (deaths exceeding births) will reach 720,000. This means that, without any migration (neither inflow nor outflow), Hong Kong’s population in 2046 would fall to 6.81 million. If Hong Kong is to have 10 million people in 2046, total net inflow (inflow minus outflow) must be 3.19 million — that is, an annual average net inflow of 145,000.¹

Given the net inflow estimate, we also need to project annual emigration to estimate how many immigrants must be absorbed each year. Estimating annual emigration is not easy: in the three years following the 2019 social unrest, over 200,000 people emigrated overseas, with the annual loss peaking at nearly 100,000. Since then, however, emigration has fallen significantly — for example, in the third quarter of this year, BNO (British National (Overseas) passport) applications to migrate to the UK totalled only 5,102, down more than 80% from the 2021 peak; Canada and other regions have also tightened their immigration policies for Hong Kong people. We boldly assume an annual average emigration of 40,000 thereafter (since global anti-immigration sentiment is high, and although many Hong Kong people wish to emigrate, reaching this number will not be easy),² which means Hong Kong will need to absorb on average 185,000 immigrants a year (145,000 plus 40,000).

The population Hong Kong can absorb each year can be divided into three categories: (1) One-Way Permit holders; (2) foreign domestic helpers; and (3) non-permanent residents entering Hong Kong through various schemes (such as the Top Talent Pass Scheme, the Quality Migrant Admission Scheme, etc.). According to the "new population projection", over this 22-year period an annual average of 37,000 One-Way Permit entrants and 10,000 foreign domestic helpers are expected, totalling 47,000 per year for the two combined. Subtracting those 47,000 in the first and second categories from the total annual required immigration of 185,000, we can calculate that Hong Kong must, on average, absorb 138,000 foreign talent and their family members (i.e. third-category immigrants) through various schemes each year — only then will it be sufficient to build a 10-million-person metropolis.

3. The ‘Water Content’ in Top Talent Pass Scheme Numbers

According to the latest government figures, over the past two years the various talent admission schemes have received 420,000 applications, approved more than 260,000, and over 170,000 people have already arrived in Hong Kong; adding dependants, approximately 350,000 people have come to Hong Kong. In other words, the number of talent and their family members arriving in Hong Kong each year has reached 175,000 — far exceeding the 138,000 per year required to build a 10-million-person metropolis. Judging by the surface figures, building a 10-million-person Hong Kong metropolis is not a pipedream.

The Top Talent Pass Scheme accounts for the largest number among the various talent admission schemes, but news reports and the Census and Statistics Department’s macro population data both show that the "water content" in Top Talent Pass Scheme numbers is extremely serious. Numerous reports indicate that some Top Talent Pass Scheme applicants have no intention of finding work in Hong Kong at all — they apply simply to obtain the initial two-year visa for the convenience of travelling to and from Hong Kong, and will decide about renewal after two years; some apply so that their children can be educated in Hong Kong, while the parents continue to work on the Mainland; and there are even unscrupulous agents advertising on social media, claiming they can fabricate all the documents required for Top Talent Pass Scheme renewal — including address proof, employment contracts and records, and payslips — and can also handle the opening of MPF (Mandatory Provident Fund) accounts and tax filing on the applicant’s behalf.

The Census and Statistics Department’s population figures from mid-2023 to mid-2024 show that the total population fell by 4,300 in that year. As for migration, after deducting One-Way Permit inflows, outflows exceeded inflows by 30,200 in that year. In addition, from September 2023 to September 2024 Hong Kong’s labour force shrank by 10,300. These figures are plainly in stark contradiction to the claim that over 100,000 foreign talent come to Hong Kong each year.

Because of space constraints, this article cannot analyse in detail how much "water content" there is in the Top Talent Pass Scheme numbers. But the Top Talent Pass Scheme arrival figures published by the government come from administrative statistics, and the chronic problem with administrative statistics is that they are subject to distortion caused by applicants’ "art of declaration" — for example, applicants tend to play down adverse facts, "exploit legal loopholes", or even submit false information. The Census and Statistics Department’s figures, by contrast, come from scientific sample surveys. If the two sets of figures contradict each other, it is the administrative statistics that should be called into question. The authors believe that only when most Top Talent Pass Scheme holders have completed their renewal procedures will we be able to determine the proportion of "water content".

4. Beyond Projections: Embracing a Comprehensive Population Policy

Population policy is the foundation of social and economic development, yet over the past several decades Hong Kong has gone round in circles and has never had an integrated population policy. In the 2000s, the government established the Steering Committee on Population Policy, which produced a population policy white paper and proposed a range of measures to encourage childbirth and attract talent. In 2015, the government published the report 《Population Policy — Strategies and Measures》, further refining the population policy, and restructured the Steering Committee on Population Policy as a cross-bureau body. However, the committee was dissolved in June 2017, and population policy has been in a vacuum ever since.

This year, the Legislative Council established the Subcommittee on Studying Population Policy and Measures to undertake a comprehensive review of the effectiveness of Hong Kong’s existing short-, medium-, and long-term population policy measures. Regrettably, at the most recent meeting of the committee, government representatives merely kept reciting the contents of Hong Kong’s population projection report, and stated that population policy should be followed up by the government’s Human Resources Planning Commission. Many legislators were disappointed with the government’s work on population policy; some pointed out that the authorities have been "going round in circles" on the minutiae of population policy, and have not produced "high-level steerage and an overall blueprint".

In recent years the government has published a number of weighty development blueprints: 《Hong Kong 2030+》, the 《Long Term Housing Strategy》, and the 《Strategic Blueprint for Major Transport Infrastructure Development in Hong Kong》, among others. The Northern Metropolis, the Kau Yi Chau Artificial Islands, urban renewal, housing supply, and transport infrastructure development that they contain are all based on the Census and Statistics Department’s 2020 population projection (《Hong Kong Population Projections 2020-2069》; hereinafter "the old population projection"). That projection is built on the estimated Hong Kong population in mid-2019, and does not take account of subsequent changes — such as the emigration wave and the additional population brought by the Top Talent Pass Scheme — so its figures are already out of date. For example, the "old population projection" estimated that Hong Kong’s population would peak at 8.11 million in 2041 before gradually declining to just 8.08 million in 2046; the "new population projection", by contrast, estimates that Hong Kong’s population will grow to 8.19 million in 2046 — a considerable difference between the two. The important development blueprints listed above all need to be amended accordingly in line with the "new population projection". If Hong Kong is truly to build a 10-million-person metropolis, these development blueprints will need to be redrawn altogether.

5. Re-establish the Population Policy Commission to Advance Hong Kong’s Urban Development

To sum up the foregoing, re-establishing a Population Policy Steering Committee led by the Chief Secretary for Administration is critical to advancing the building of Hong Kong’s metropolis. The committee should broadly draw its members from different bureaux and professional backgrounds, regularly review the population situation, study future development trends, and put forward practical and feasible policy recommendations. At the same time, the committee should strengthen its interface and co-ordination with the national level, to ensure that Hong Kong’s population policy dovetails with the country’s overall strategy. "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step": the above proposals are only the first step in building a 10-million-person metropolis — but they are also a critical step.

• Actively Advance Population Policy — Building a 10-Million-Person Greater Hong Kong Metropolis by Yun-wing Sung, Wilson Wong