Since the government introduced multiple talent-attraction measures at the end of 2022, a cumulative total of around 430,000 talents and their dependants have entered Hong Kong. However, over the same period, Hong Kong’s total population has declined slightly from its peak in mid-2023, giving rise to the phenomenon of “large inflows without population growth.” This article analyses recent population changes to identify the key factors behind this outcome. The analysis shows that the population rebound between 2022 and 2023 was largely driven by post-pandemic normalisation and had limited connection to talent policies. In the subsequent two years, in addition to talents, inflows also included One-way Permit holders, imported workers, non-local students, and foreign domestic helpers, bringing total inflows to around 590,000, yet without leading to overall population growth. As Hong Kong’s integration with the Mainland deepens and two-way talent mobility intensifies, uncertainty surrounding future population size and structure is set to increase significantly. The article argues that, when formulating long-term plans for land, housing, education, and healthcare, the government must review population trends more frequently and maintain policy flexibility to respond to increasingly complex population dynamics.
Hong Kong Has Imported Hundreds of Thousands of Talents — Why Is the Total Population Still Declining?
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