Since the talent attraction policy was introduced in the 2022 Policy Address, the number of talents entering Hong Kong has far exceeded the official targets. According to government figures, around 220,000 talents arrived in Hong Kong over the past two years, and when dependants are included, total inflows are estimated at approximately 290,000. However, over the same period, Hong Kong’s total population has not increased significantly due to natural population decline and rising outflows. This article assesses the feasibility of developing Hong Kong into a 10-million-population metropolis from the perspectives of population projections and carrying capacity. Reaching a population of 10 million by 2046 would be extremely challenging. Even if the population target could be achieved, constraints related to land supply, housing, transport, public services, and fiscal capacity would remain substantial. Moreover, relying on large-scale inflows of new residents to fill the population gap could pose challenges for social integration and resource allocation. The article therefore argues that, rather than pursuing a population size target, Hong Kong should adopt a more pragmatic and long-term population and talent strategy, focusing on improving population structure, enhancing human capital quality, and strengthening planning resilience.
Is developing a 10-Million-Population Hong Kong Metropolis Feasible?
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